Quantitative methods, on the other hand, rely on historical demand data. Although exercising very different levels of authority, from senior executive roles to front line implementation and delivery, all 39 were defined as change agents whose leadership characteristics and behaviours would influence the success or failure of Shared Services (Battilana, Gilmartin, Sengul, Pache, & Alexander, 2010). These ranged from full disclosure of all information including the participant's name to a much more cautious option that required the researcher to contact the participant before using the data. Gordon, T. J., & Helmer-Hirschberg, O. The initiative, known generally as the Saskatchewan Shared Services Initiative or simply “Shared Services,” was initiated in 2010. A second purpose of this article is to guide researchers in using the Delphi method for research that is primarily qualitative. The prediction of social events. (1963). Group meetings can often be a problem because of personality or strong differences of opinion, whereas anonymous communication could avoid that issue. The issues identified are then placed directly into a quantitative survey for ranking or rating by the expert panel. Delphi method when he wants to collect the judgments of experts in a group decision making set-ting. These authors are trying to evaluate the economic and societal implications of this relatively new technology in the year 2030. The study employed a modified Delphi method with the participation of health leaders as research partners. The PAR framework emphasizes participant involvement at all phases of the research project. View or download all the content the society has access to. Although quantitative questionnaires have been used in the first round, a qualitative first round is optimal, because the primary function of the Delphi method is to explore an area of future thinking that goes beyond the currently known or believed. • Delphi works with problems that are poorly understand or missing data. As far back as 1400 B.C.E., the Oracle of Delphi was the place where royalty would petition the god Apollo through an intermediary – the Pythia – a female priestess of Apollo. The Delphi technique originated in the 1950s as a research project funded by … When presenting the results from a Delphi study, we typically present each round. • Delphi and NGT typically use multiple iterations of questioning to assist in reaching consensus (Hsu & Sandford, 2007), and there is no specific set number of rounds. After the first Delphi round, a high-level member of the decision-making reference group reported that, “the research project has given me a better understanding of the problems with the [Shared Services] Initiative … it was clear we had not engaged enough with front-line leaders and that is something that I am addressing now.” The Delphi method allowed us to return results to participants when they needed them, and not simply as a report presented after the fact. There is a need for more research using a modified Delphi approach in participatory research in other contexts. The Delphi method is an iterative approach to research in which participants are presented with regular reports on the findings during each questionnaire round. Strategic planning is also an area that uses the Delphi process in trying to be better prepared for future events. As a final step, and outside of this basic outline, data from the Delphi survey process can be further validated by follow-up surveys. Retrieved from Retrieved from http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/papers/2005/P2982.pdf, Helmer, O. The Delphi method is a promising method for use in qualitative research studies seeking to inform practice through theory development. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 33(2), 179-204. doi:10.1037/h0062931, Roßmann, B., Canzaniello, A., Gracht, H. v. d., & Hartmann, E. (2017). The list was presented to the decision-making reference group for their feedback, and the finalized strategies were integrated into the round two Delphi questionnaire for all participants' feedback. As mentioned earlier, there are instances where using qualitative forecasting is more useful than quantitative methods. In contrast to the open-ended questions, the Likert-type scale questions were used to quantitatively evaluate the items already contained in the LEADS framework. A. Although the success of change initiatives often depends on the capabilities of health leaders at various levels, the conceptually elusive and often context-dependent nature of leadership makes it difficult to identify the characteristics most conducive to positive change. Delphi Technique of Qualitative Forecasting 2. Our project focused on an in-progress case of health system change and, as such, followed the implementation of Shared Services in real time. The project was designed to respond to current pressures within the Canadian health system, particularly a perceived tension between accessibility and quality in the context of escalating costs. Existing literature has described the strategies, benefits, and limitations involved in using the Delphi method (Adler & Ziglio, 1995; Goodman, 1987; Keeney, Hasson, & McKenna, 2006; Linstone & Turoff, 1975; McKenna, 1994; Murry & Hammons, 1995; Powell, 2003; Sackman, 1974). The health system partners were best able to identify which actors should be consulted in this regard. The researchers then contacted these participants and a final list of 39 participants was established from the initial list. for the first round is a matter of combining information, deciding upon which responses are the same as others that are not worded the same, and determining frequency of response rate. The technique uses a series of rounds or iterations where information is given back to the participants for review. The major determinants of the prediction of social events. From a theoretical perspective in more modern times, one of the earliest words on prediction was by McGregor (1938). The Delphi questionnaire presented four potential areas for leadership development. There were 926 doctoral dissertations that used some form of Delphi study between 1971 and 2017, with more than a third in the last 10 years. I have read and accept the terms and conditions. (2002). Overall, in both the self-assessment and assessment of others, the LEADS characteristic “modelling qualities such as integrity, honesty, resilience and confidence” was rated highest. First, participants were asked to offer their own interpretations of areas where statistically significant differences were found between the average scale ratings of the three participant groups. The method helped to ensure the involvement and investment of health leaders and the applicability of the results for those involved in this ongoing initiative. “The Delphi method is a qualitative and qualitative prospective tool, consisting of an aggregation of (experts) opinions. These areas were most likely to indicate key issues of disagreement and potential controversy within Shared Services, and therefore areas where leadership successes and failures were most likely to emerge. The prediction of social events. They were asked to use a scale that ranged from 0 (no importance) to 10 (the most importance) to indicate how much importance they had actually (not ideally) placed on each characteristic in their own leadership practice during Shared Services. Both qualitative and quantitative methods can be used in the Delphi process. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/papers/2005/P2982.pdf, Jiang, R., Kleer, R., & Piller, F. T. (2017). For more information view the SAGE Journals Article Sharing page. Green, Jones, Hughes, and Williams (2002) expressed concerns about maintaining an inductive approach to data analysis when using the Delphi method; they found that the reduction and distillation of participants' words to facilitate consensus “emerged as one of the most problematic aspects of the study” (p. 201) given the authors' commitment to an inductive and qualitative approach to the data analysis process. Delphi has been described as a qualitative, quantitative, and mixed-methods approach. In all cases, an open-ended comment window was available and participants were encouraged to provide additional comments and/or express disagreement with the strategies presented. (2017) studied how big data will affect supply chain management in the future. Kaiser's original form contained four confidentiality options for participants to select from. As far as the number, Delbecq et al. Kaplan et al. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 117(April 2017), 84-97. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.01.006. Despite the potential of the qualitative Delphi for use in social science, far less methodological guidance exists in the literature for qualitative Delphi studies than in quantitative or mixed method studies. Although critics have argued that the Delphi method encourages conformity and neglects potentially illuminating information from alternative or outlying opinions (Goodman, 1987; Sackman, 1974), a key advantage of the method is that, because participants can be interviewed or surveyed individually, it can facilitate a “dialogue” between experts from diverse geographical locations while preserving anonymity (Linstone & Turoff, 1975; Ziglio, 1995). Modifications of the Delphi method abound. The e-mail addresses that you supply to use this service will not be used for any other purpose without your consent. There are challenges, however, with this research design. Priorities are condensed into those that are essentially the same and percentages calculated for the occurrence of each priority. In this model, participating experts are questioned about their forecast two or three times. Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. The Delphi method is a formal, in-depth systematic qualitative methodology which was first studied by a team at the RAND Corporation in 1950, who made multiple practical applications of the method (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963). $12.99. Like Delphi, NGT is a tool for gathering group opinion, in which participants generate ideas silently and independently of each other. The study was a two-round Delphi project carried out over a period of 9 months (see Figure 1). For this reason, NGT might be inappropriate for situations involving power differentials between participants. They entail the use of time series and associative models. Second, because Delphi research is premised on “informed judgment” (Ziglio, 1995, p. 4), it was important that the selected participants had been sufficiently involved in Shared Services to provide such informed judgment. As such, the research is part of a dynamic and ongoing process of health system change. A third challenge, as mentioned previously, involved political will. Baker, J., Lovell, K., & Harris, N. (2006). The most popular strategy choice among interviewees in Groups 2 and 3 was to increase CEO engagement with employees and stakeholders in the health system. The second part of the interview involved quantitative rating questions using a Likert-type scale of 0 to 10. We report several key findings to illustrate how the methodology produced useful information for health decision makers, and to show how it led us toward a more concrete articulation of the elusive concept “leadership.”. In PAR, the research project must address the needs of both academic and participant researchers (Billies et al., 2010). The Delphi method may be characterised as some kind of paradigmatic Delphi: A versatile methodology for conducting qualitative research, The Delphi method as a research tool: An example, design considerations and applications, The Delphi panel method for generating health information, The Delphi technique: Myths and realities, Theoretical, methodological and practical issues arising out of the Delphi method, Delphi: A re-evaluation of research and theory, Managing Delphi surveys using nonparametric statistical techniques, The tip of the iceberg: Working on the Victoria Climbié Data Corpus Project, Applying the Nominal Group Technique (NGT) in community based action research for health promotion and disease prevention, The Delphi method and its contribution to decision-making, SAGE Publications Inc unless otherwise noted. Jury of Executive Opinion B. Delphi Method C. Sales Force Composite D. Market Survey The object “is to obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion of a group of experts” (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963, p. 458) as to the best workable solutions to the problem. A very basic introduction to the use of the Delphi method in quantitative research. A typical Delphi study includes at least two rounds of questionnaires. Indeed, as Gilgun (2011) noted, deductive codes must be treated flexibly, because “it is easy to find material that supports the prior codes, but it is just as important in many cases to find material that does not fit into your codes” (p. 2). PAR creates space for “non-academic community members to contribute to knowledge construction about the issue being studied” and seeks to understand how the issue plays out in participants' everyday lives (Billies, Francisco, Krueger, & Linville, 2010, p. 278). The first challenge of leadership we identified was related to vision, particularly the communication of the Shared Services vision. The second option included the protections of the first but also allowed the participant to select other items they did not want published or presented to anyone except the academic researchers, for example, stories or anecdotes they had shared that could identify them. That questionnaire provides a set of beginning data, and the researcher then combines and synthesizes the data from the panel. They also provided an initial list of potential participants who had sufficient involvement in the reform to speak about their experiences. However, the number can vary considerably, depending on the research goals, and we rarely have a homogeneous population when considering complex issues. Some had difficulty finding the words to describe leadership, which supports Dickson's (2009) assertion that “for many people, the qualities and actions that define quality leadership [are] elusive” (p. 296). The project discussed here involved participatory research with leaders and managers at different levels of authority in the same health system; therefore, it required the more anonymous approach offered by the Delphi method. Leadership is an important factor in the success or failure of these initiatives. Third, as discussed below, the Delphi method facilitated participants' use of the research results in their daily work on Shared Services. We present our rationale for selecting a modified Delphi method in the study of health leadership and describe its utility for understanding and refining elusive concepts such as leadership. While 3D printing may not be a topic on your list of things to consider, it is a technology that is growing rapidly and has application into medicine, tool manufacture, and even space exploration. These were questions that most people would not know, although some of the participants might be able to make more educated guesses than others. Because the research project followed the restructuring initiative in real time, we used an iterative process with qualitative open-ended questioning in both Delphi rounds, a method that differs from the more common use of Delphi for numeric consensus seeking. Davidson, P. L., & Hasledalen, K. (2014). Presentation of the data is commonly the priorities in the order (averaged) as suggested by the panel, with some commentary noted from the participants. NGT is methodologically similar and often compared to the Delphi method or used in conjunction with it (e.g., Davis, Turner, Hicks, & Tipson, 2007). B., Janz, L., & Dastmalchian, A. Josephus, F. (1998). Delphi Method. The second-round analysis is much like the first, combining similar answers and calculating “importance” of the issues based on percentage of times that issues was noted by the panel. This proved an important finding and will be discussed further below. 4. This article has shown the modification of Delphi methodology for use in a significantly more open-ended and qualitative fashion than has previously been the case. Leadership development initiatives underlie individual and system performance in a US public healthcare delivery system, Jazz and the banyan tree: Roots and riffs on participatory action research, Nobody in charge: Distributed change agency in healthcare, Implementing strategic change in a health care system, Application of Delphi method in selection of procurement systems for construction projects, Change agency in a primary health care context: The case of distributed leadership, Leadership in public services networks: Antecedents, process and outcome. Sign in here to access free tools such as favourites and alerts, or to access personal subscriptions, If you have access to journal content via a university, library or employer, sign in here, Research off-campus without worrying about access issues. Is the Delphi technique valid? With the modifications suggested, the method is well suited for participatory action research and for studies of change initiatives occurring in real time. For example, participants were asked: “what leadership capabilities do leaders need in order to initiate and to implement health system change?” Their responses to all questions were coded and the results were compared against LEADS to identify any gaps or particularly important elements of the framework. The project provided an opportunity to test and evaluate the accuracy of the new LEADS framework. (, Davis, R., Turner, E., Hicks, D., & Tipson, M. (, De Urioste-Stone, S., McLaughlin, W. J., & Sanyal, N. (, de Villiers, M. R., de Villiers, P. J. T., & Kent, A. P. (, Denis, J.-L., Langley, A., & Rouleau, L. (, Fink, A., Kosecoff, J., Chassin, M., & Brook, R. (, Green, B., Jones, M., Hughes, D., & Williams, A. We propose a modification of Kaiser's (2009) post-interview confidentiality form to address power differentials between participants and to enhance confidentiality in the PAR process. First, the Delphi method is epistemologically conducive to PAR research. American Journal of Public Health, 74(9), 979-983. Murry and Hammons (1995) opted to eliminate the open-ended round altogether, moving directly into a structured survey because this “saves time and expense and allows the panel to immediately focus its attention on the study issues” (p. 431). A final section addressed four major observations that had emerged from the coded interview data. As previously mentioned, however, this aspect has drawn criticism for its potential to force consensus and for not allowing participants to elaborate on their responses (Goodman, 1987; Hasson et al., 2000; Sackman, 1974). Participants work anonymously. The Delphi method or Delphi technique (/ ˈdɛlfaɪ / DEL-fy; also known as Estimate-Talk-Estimate or ETE) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The Delphi technique: Making sense of consensus. As such, this important theme would have been missed if we had not combined our deductive codes with open coding. Although the literature provides advice on the use of quantitative and statistical measures in Delphi, particularly in the context of information systems research (Okoli & Pawlowski, 2004; Schmidt, 1997), little has been written about the process of qualitative data processing within the Delphi process, despite the fact that the first round typically involves an open-ended questionnaire or interviews to determine priority issues for subsequent rounds. Although communication was often cited as a crucial leadership characteristic, especially during change initiatives, Group 3 participants reported that higher-level leaders had not communicated a well-articulated vision of the initiative. The results of both Delphi rounds are presented in more detail below. This article has provided researchers with insight on the conversion of qualitative interview data, using qualitative data-processing software, into an open-ended Delphi survey. Using a variety of methods rather than relying on one single method is best. The process resulted in 23 codes. The object is to obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion of a group of experts (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963, p. 458) as to the best workable solutions to the problem. In the work of Kaplan, Skogstad, and Girshick (1950), the authors relied heavily on the work of McGregor (1938), and Cantril (1938), but focused primarily on the process of improvement of prediction. These methods include: (a) metric-based quantitative and qualitative studies, (b) workshops, (c) brainstorming sessions, and (d) the Delphi method, plus many others, including checklists, audit forms, records analysis, trends, and scenario analysis. London, UK: Jessica Kingsley Publishers. Notably, all groups selected a particular communication strategy—namely, increased communication between the central Shared Services office and the CEOs of the health regions—as the most ideal means to improve communication of the Shared Services vision. Distributing leadership in health and social care: Concertive, conjoint or collective? Leadership development: Does it make a difference? Use of the Delphi method in medical research is the most common field of application, based on the number of articles published. ... Qualitative and quantitative facts can be queried in parallel; Disadvantages. Third round data would typically move into the category of textual analysis, looking for categories, sub-categories, and themes based on the textual responses of the participants. Round two data deals with the initial prioritization, commonly associated with textual defense of their priorities. The Delphi method may be only one component of the research project; for example, the Delphi outputs may be verified and generalized with a survey. The deductive approaches also helped to ensure a sharp focus on issues of leadership, which otherwise might have been overshadowed by details and concerns about Shared Services itself. By continuing to browse This is the round where the participants are asked to elaborate in detail as to the issues, their preferences, methods to fix the problem or help implement the solution(s). We would typically also indicate what was being sent back to the panel for the start of round two. Objectives • Become familiar with the qualitative research method known as the Delphi Technique. Cantril (1938) elaborated on McGregor’s work, also dealing with the issue of validity and the certainty of predictions. Furthermore, the method allowed us to provide just-in-time information that participants could put into action. Health leadership has been identified as a critical factor in the success or failure of health system reforms in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada (Blackler, 2006; Borkowski, Deckard, Weber, Padron, & Luongo, 2011; Denis, Langley, & Rouleau, 2010). An Enterprise can opt one or multiple of the above methodology for Qualitative Risk Analysis. To address this challenge, a unique methodological approach was developed to study health system leadership in a major restructuring initiative in Canada that involved spreading leadership across numerous organizational boundaries (Denis, Langley, & Sergi, 2012). (, Billies, M., Francisco, V., Krueger, P., & Linville, D. (, Borkowski, N., Deckard, G., Weber, M., Padron, L. A., & Luongo, S. (, Brydon-Miller, M., Kral, M., Maguire, P., Noffke, S., & Sabhlok, A. Each round provides an opportunity for the experts to respond and to revise their answer in light of the group members' previous responses. From that early beginning in the 1950’s and 60’s, the Delphi technique has evolved and grown significantly. Our version of the post-interview confidentiality form allowed participants to select between two options for how their data would be utilized and presented. Researchers need to include more participants than could easily be accommodated in an on-ground setting. For example, say that there is a record cold front coming through sooner than in previous years. Please read and accept the terms and conditions and check the box to generate a sharing link. “Any argument from a premise to a conclusion is an inference, and those that are expressed in the future tense are classified as predictions” (p. 179). As mentioned, several important themes and inter-group differences emerged during the open coding process that would otherwise have been missed if coding had followed only pre-determined codes. • The researcher provides feedback to the participants between rounds to encourage participants to reconsider their earlier responses. As such, “the focus is on creating dialogue and generating knowledge through interaction” between researchers and participants (Brydon-Miller, Kral, Maguire, Noffke, & Sabhlok, 2011, p. 390; Walji, 2009). There were four principal reasons the Delphi method was selected for this PAR project. The Canadian health system—like other publicly funded health systems globally—currently faces particular challenges at the intersection of accessibility, quality, and resource availability. For example, do not indicate how often a response was made in round one. As this is textual, some sort of context analysis is appropriate. They also helped ensure that the final report was useful and useable for participants and health leaders more broadly. There is a need for more research using a modified Delphi approach in participatory research in other contexts. Qualitative Delphi Method: A Four Round Process with a Worked Example . The Delphi Method was originally designed to collect data from a panel of experts to aid in decision making in government settings. Some society journals require you to create a personal profile, then activate your society account, You are adding the following journals to your email alerts, Did you struggle to get access to this article? DELPHI METHOD IN QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH A graduate-level illustrated introduction to and tutorial the Delphi method, discussing quantitative applications and explaining fuzzy math approaches to Delphi networks. Participants between rounds for situations involving power differentials between participants participants might be very diverse experts no! Round process with a Worked example participant 's name generally, used for qualitative issue decision-makings perspective more. Data that did not fit our deductive code list were placed into codes. Terms and conditions and check the box to generate a Sharing link previous years your consent the four,... Quantitative, and its end use, NGT might be improved add to the issue... Both research report and questionnaire to verify, discuss, and that has not in! In medical research is part of the Delphi method with the researchers generated a of! Compete and unabridged ( W. Whiston, Trans. ) frames ( < 1 year without. 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